Goldman Sachs sounds the alarm on early AI job shifts. Though most firms haven’t rolled out AI at scale, signs of tech layoffs are already surfacing. Younger workers in tech are getting hit hardest.
Senior global economist Joseph Briggs dropped the details on Goldman Sachs Exchanges (aired Tuesday). Tech jobs had been steadily growing for 20 years. Now? They’re pulling back, falling below trend for the last three years.
The November 2022 launch of OpenAI’s ChatGPT turbocharged AI adoption, pumping up giants like Nvidia. AI is handling routine work faster and cheaper. Executives are open about AI’s impact: Alphabet and Microsoft say AI writes about 30% of project code. Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff claims AI covers up to 50% of work at his company. 
Briggs pointed out rising unemployment among tech workers aged 20-30 — up 3 points this year, a clear early displacement sign.
“If you look at the tech sector’s employment trends, they’ve been basically growing as a share of overall employment in a remarkably linear manner for the last 20 years,”
“Over the last three years, we’ve actually seen a pullback in tech hiring that has led it to undershoot its trend,”
Joseph Briggs, Goldman Sachs senior global economist
Former tech banker George Lee added the low hiring of juniors is a direct result of AI streamlining.
“How do I begin to streamline my enterprise so I can be more flexible and more adaptive… yet without harming our competitive edge?”
“Young employees for this period of time are a little bit the casualty of that.”
George Lee, co-head Goldman Sachs Global Institute
Briggs estimates 6-7% of jobs could vanish to AI automation if adoption plays out over a decade. A faster rollout or economic downturn could worsen things. AGI’s arrival would be even more disruptive but is unpredictable.
Briggs on AGI:
“Our analysis doesn’t factor in the potential for the emergence of AGI,”
“It’s hard to even start thinking about the impact on the labor market, but I would guess there probably and undoubtedly is more room for labor substitution and a more disruptive impact in that world.”
The AI job squeeze has begun. Young tech workers beware.
